Politics BETTING: Who will be YOUR Mayor?

Assuming you live in Laaandaaaaan....

Front runners: Johnson (1.62), Livingstone (2.6)

Dick Whittington is surely the only tale – factual or fictional – in which a young man overcomes all obstacles in order to achieve his dream of working in local government. Fortunately for generations of youngsters, the pantomime version skates over how Mayor Whittington's enthusiasm stood up to years of housing budget debate and community policing initiatives and instead explores the audience's ability to withstand torture by double entendre. No such fun during the 2008 London mayoral election, in spite of one of the candidates, Boris Johnson, having a genuine world class talent for buffoonery. His opponent, the dour Livingstone, is the kind of character more likely to appear on stage when the lights are down to indicate "night," or "a forest", yet in spite of his vastly superior talent for political manipulation he trails handsome Boris in the betting markets with just over a week to go. Will the innocent young twit Johnson get to realize his lifelong ambition of wearing the spangly costume of local authority power? Not if the current mayor can nobble him in the woods first. But time's running out Kenneth, and he's not behind you…

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Strategy
Both candidates have adopted a similar approach - keep very still and let the other guy make the mistakes. Ken clearly believes that he is only candidate actually capable of doing the job, and having knocked out two Conservative campaigns in a row (Steven Norris, 2000 and 2004) he is understandably complacent. "The only real thing [Boris] has ever managed is a small Right-wing magazine, where the most difficult decision was where to take the staff for lunch," he scoffed. The Johnson campaign team meanwhile focuses solely on keeping Boris's foot out of his mouth. Something they have done with aplomb - bar an empty promise to reverse the smoking ban, that is.

The Polls
The numbers have skittered around a little, but they have kept the betting lively. A YouGov poll published by the Evening Standard a couple of weeks ago had Boris 13 points out in front. Another YouGov poll published by the Guardian just a week later had Boris' lead at a single point. With an average voting turnout of around 35 per cent, much will depend on how vehement the anti-Labour vote has become. The suspicion is that a small voting turnout would be hugely favourable for Boris - the thought being that those most desperate for a change in office will vote - while a bigger percentage would see common sense prevail, and the lumbering buffoon can go about his scruffy business without ruining the capital.

Policy
Still something of a mystery. Both candidates speak of the importance of doing something about crime, housing, education and transport, but without specifying what it is or how much it might cost. Ken proposes to cut speed limits to 20 mph on some residential streets, Boris has decided that policemen should be posted on buses to stop everyone stabbing each other at night. Strangely he has gone from heaping praise on public transport - having no fears for children taking the tube alone - to brandishing it a frightening experience. On the whole, though, both have maintained a near-Trappist silence on their real plans for the capital.

The Gaffes
This is a category Boris was expected to dominate, but he's largely managed to control himself. His only big mistake so far came when he told a meeting organised by the homeless charity Shelter that he lived in a huge house worth "shedloads of money." Otherwise, his remarks have been uncharacteristically bland - although his stubborn refusal to name who might be joining him in office has caused many raised eyebrows.

The Graft
This is a category Ken has all to himself. Murky donations from property developers. Close aides forced to leave following accusations of cronyism and sexual impropriety (saucy text messages). Rumours that he is deliberately suppressing information about the true cost of the Olympics. This side of Ken Livingstone has done all the headline grabbing.

The Verdict?
Ken's instinct for a good electoral scrap certainly means sooner or later he'll come out swinging - he has stood for two and won two mayoral elections, so he knows what he's doing. That said, Labour won the last Mayoral election and went on to win the General Election the following year, hence this year's Mayoral election is expected to reflect the nation's feelings about next year's big one. This could spell trouble... or, worse still, B.O.R.I.S.