Oscars BETTING: Bumper guide to Oscar betting!

The Oscars have been announced, meaning that small children will now be getting barked at in overpopulated and unventilated factory dungeons (presumably), frantically scrubbing a series of golden statuettes. But who will win these delicious prizes that these poor slave kids cry salty tears to make lovely?

The runners and riders read thusly:

BEST PICTURE

The Nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood

» Eleven of the last thirty Best Pictures have featured none of the award winning actors for that year (Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress). Atonement - only represented in the Best Supporting Actress category by 13-year-old Saoirse Ronan - Michael Clayton - represented, but unlikely to win, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress - and Juno - Best Actress nominee - all look unlikely for any acting prizes.

» Only twice in the last ten years has the Best Actor starred in the Best Picture (Russell Crowe, Gladiator, 2000; Kevin Spacey, American Beauty, 1999). With Day-Lewis looking a shoo-in for the acting prize, it doesn't look good for There Will Be Blood.

» Four of the last twenty Best Pictures have featured the Best Actress (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby, 2004; Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love, 1998; Jodie Foster, Silence of The Lambs, 1991; Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy, 1989). Of this year's nominees, only Juno could acheive the same feat, with Ellen Page nominated for Best Actress. In a similar vein to Little Miss Sunshine - i.e. a small 'indie' film surrounded by giants - it looks a very unlikely winner.

» Only once in the last thirty years has the director of the Best Picture not been nominated for a Best Director statuette (Bruce Beresford, Driving Miss Daisy, 1989). This year, second favourite Atonement was not directed by a nominated director.

» Just eight of the last thirty Best Actors have been the star of the Best Picture, which is good news for No Country For Old Men, which has no representative in the Best Actor category. Javier Bardem, however, is the favourite for Best Supporting Actor. Nine of the last thirty Best Pictures have starred a Best Supporting Actor or Actress, so the chances are fractionally better.

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood, Ethan Coen & Joel Coen - No Country for Old Men, Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton, Jason Reitman - Juno, Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

» Since 2000, the average age of the winning Director has been 55.1. That means it should be between the Coen Brothers (50 and 53) for No Country for Old Men, and Julian Schnabel (56), for The Diving Bell and The Butterfly.

» Since 1927, thirty-eight of the winning directors have been in their 40s, eighteen have been in their 30s, eighteen in their 50s, and the rest in their 60s. No one under 30 has ever won the thing - the youngest ever being Norman Taurog, who won in 1931 for the film Skippy. He was 32. That counts out 30-year-old Jason Reitman (Juno).

» Directors who have never won include: Robert Altman (five nominations), Ingmar Bergman (three nominations), Alfred Hitchcock (five nominations), Stanley Kubrick (four nominations), Sergio Leone (no nominations), Sidney Lumet (four nominations), David Lynch (three nominations), Terrence Malick (one nomination), and Ridley Scott (three nominations). Once again Scott has gone unnoticed (for American Gangster).

» On only six occasions in the last thirty years has the Best Director not directed the Best Film (Warren Beatty, 1981, Reds; Oliver Stone, 1989, Born on the Fourth of July; Steven Spielberg, 1998, Saving Private Ryan; Steven Soderbergh, 2000, Traffic; Roman Polanski, 2002, The Pianist; Ang Lee, 2005, Brokeback Mountain). With No Country For Old Men the favourite for Best Picture, it should be the Coen Brothers.

BEST ACTOR

The Nominees: George Clooney - Michael Clayton, Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood, Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd, Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah, Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

» Only three times in the last ten years has a single film starred more than one award winner. The last time it happened was in 2003, when Sean Penn (Best Actor) and Tim Robbins (Best Supporting Actor) both did well in Mystic River. This could come as a shock to George Clooney (Best Actor), Tilda Swinton (Best Supporting Actress) and Tom Wilkinson (Best Supporting Actor) who are all nominated - but unlikely to win - for Michael Clayton.

» Only six actors in history have won both a Best Actor award and Best Supporting Actor - Jack Lemmon, Robert De Niro, Jack Nicholson, Gene Hackman, Kevin Spacey, and Denzel Washington. Clooney will be vying to get onto that list (after his supporting win for Syriana in 2005), as will Phillip Seymour Hoffman (nominated for his supporting role in Charlie Wilson's War, after winning Best Actor for Capote in 2005), and Tommy Lee Jones (won for his supporting role in The Fugitive, 1993, now nominated for In The Valley of Elah). Of the three, Hoffman is the best bet for Best Supporting Actor.

» Actors don't win for musicals, which means that Johnny Depp will struggle to get the gong for his part in the all-singing all-killing Sweeney Todd. The Academy appears to prefer big serious, scowling roles, and a comedic performance hasn't won since 1997 (Jack Nicholson, As Good As It Gets).

» As mentioned, the Academy loves a big epic performance - Forest Whitaker, last year; Russell Crowe, Gladiator - so Day-Lewis' over-the-top performance in There Will Be Blood could see him picking up his second Best Actor award, making him the eighth man to get two of the things. Spencer Tracy (1937, 1938), Fredric March (1932, 1946), Gary Cooper (1941, 1952), Marlon Brando (1954, 1972), Dustin Hoffman (1979, 1988), Tom Hanks (1993, 1994), and Jack Nicholson (1975, 1997) are the others.

BEST ACTRESS

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age, Julie Christie - Away from Her, Marion Cotillard - La vie en Rose, Laura Linney - Savages, Ellen Page - Juno

» Only two of the last ten Best Actresses have been in the Best Picture (Hilary Swank, 2004, Million Dollar Baby; Gwyneth Paltrow, 1998, Shakespeare In Love). Juno is the only film up for Best Picture and Best Actress (Ellen Page).

» Recent awards have gone to actresses playing real people, four of the last five in fact (Helen Mirren playing the Queen, 2006; Reese Witherspoon, June Carter, 2005; Charlize Theron, Aileen Wournos, 2003; Nicole Kidman, Virginia Woolf, 2002). This bodes well for Marion Cotillard, playing Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose, and Cate Blanchett playing Elizabeth.

» Dressing down and uglying up can do wonders for a beautiful Hollywood lady, just ask Charlize Theron (Monster, 2002) and Nicole Kidman (The Hours, 2003). Both won, both looked ropey. Brilliant news for Julie Christie, who used to be a stunner.

» Also good for Christie is that physical or mental illness can propel an actor (Day-Lewis, My Left Foot; Hoffman, Rain Man) to the prize, making her portrayal of a woman with Alzheimer's in Away From Her a very strong contender.

» Cate Blanchett is nominated as the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress (for No Way Home) categories. The last time an actress won for a leading role after being nominated for both was when Holly Hunter triumphed for The Piano (1993), whilst simultaneously gracing the Best Supporting Acress category for her turn in The Firm. Unlikely.

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