Oscars BETTING: Upset alert!

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The race for Best Actor looks completely in the bag for Daniel Day-Lewis, with the editor of the glitzy tinseltown glossy Variety having even gone on video saying that his performance in There Will Be Blood has simply blown away the opposition this year. He should have it nailed on, as he appears to have won every other award going.

But, for the speculative punter, don't forget that the Oscars do tend to throw up an upset or two. As recently as 2002 Daniel Day-Lewis was tipped for the prize for his turn as Bill the Butcher in Scorcese's Gangs of New York, but on that occasion he lost out to a slightly more measured performance by Adrien Brody (in The Pianist). The only nominee who seems capable of an upset would be George Clooney - a massive Hollywood favourite, with his chiseled jaw and daring political agenda - while Johnny Depp as Sweeney Todd was just as over-the-top as Day-Lewis, only not nearly as good - the film appears to have flopped somewhat (ie. Hardly anyone we know has seen it).

In Depp's favour however is his age: in the last ten years, the average age of the winning actor has been 42, and at 44 Depp would be the closest. But, of course, that's just straw clutching (or is it?).

Other possible upsets could be located in the Supporting Actor category, which has long been the stomping ground of this year's supposed shoo-in, Javier Bardem – people have been going bananas for his menacing turn in No Country for Old Men. This is the same category that Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) was supposed to win last year, Tom Cruise in 1999 (Magnolia), and Samuel L Jackson (Pulp Fiction) famously mouthed a very rude word on losing out to Martin Landau in 1994.

The Academy might favour something a little more subtle to go alongside Day-Lewis' massive dramatic show, meaning Casey Affleck's creepy Robert Ford, or Hal Holbrook's weepy old man (Into The Wild) could sneak it. Big Best Actor performances have tended to go hand in hand with quieter Supporting Actors (Russell Crowe, Gladiator, and Benicio Del Torro, Traffic, 2000; Denzel Washington, Training Day, and Jim Broadbent, Iris, 2001). But one school of logic insists that Bardem was moved down a category to avoid clashing with Day-Lewis, so it would be a shock for them both not to win.

Other Oscar facts worth noting are that Julie Christie's Oscar win could be threatened by her hair colour. If, as we suspect, she is considered a silver haired woman, she would only be the fourth winner (after Geraldine Page, 1985, Out of Africa; Jessica Tandy, 1989, Driving Miss Daisy; Helen Mirren, last year, The Queen), and even if she considers herself a blonde, the gong has been swiped by brunettes forty-six times of a possible seventy-nine. Might this favour Cotillard and Ellen Page?

ONE MORE STARTLING FACT:

Back in 1996, the Coen Brothers missed out on the Best Picture Oscar (for the brilliant Fargo) to the horrible English Patient (most in kind to this year's Atonement). Eek.